What Are Swing States?

United States flag
10-15 swing states become a focal point every four years during Presidential Election campaigns.
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Swing States and the United States Electoral Process

Unlike many other countries in the world, the United States does not elect a president based on a direct popular vote total. Instead, elections are determined by the Electoral College, a process whereby individual states are assigned a specific number of Electoral College votes. The presidential candidate who receives a majority of those votes is then elected president.

Map of United States
Map of the United States.

The number of Electoral College votes assigned to a specific state is equal to the total number of Senators and Congressmen or Congresswomen representing the state. While this does ensure that larger states receive more voting power, it does level the playing field a little for smaller states, guaranteeing that every state receives at least three votes regardless of population. As a result of this process, a presidential candidate can win an election but lose the popular vote total.

With the increasing polarization of American politics, most states are typically locked into the presidential candidate that they will support. Only about 10-15 states in a normal election cycle have the potential to shift between the two major political parties. These 10-15 states become the focal point of presidential campaigns every four years and are called swing states.

The Evolution and Formation of Swing States

Throughout American political history, different states have often held strategic value in presidential races, indicating trends in the country as a whole or determining the outcome of an election. However, up until the 21st century, the presence of important swing states often varied with the specific election season. Strong national socio-economic trends, political forces, and the strength of a presidential candidate often created a particular subset of swing states for a specific election season or diminished their presence as a whole.

Photograph of President John F. Kennedy
Swing states were instrumental in President Kennedy’s election in 1960.

For example, the Election of 1960 was one of the closest in US history, as the country generally approved of the job performance of the previous Eisenhower administration but was looking for a change in leadership. The resulting political climate created many important swing states such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, California, Texas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, most of whom went to John F. Kennedy, who won the election.

However, the Election of 1964 resulted in the Republican nomination of Barry Goldwater. His unpopular views alienated most of the country and eliminated the presence of a large number of influential swing states, resulting in an electoral landslide victory by Lyndon Johnson.

Again, in 1968, backlash over the Vietnam War and the presence of a 3rd Party candidate created a hotly contested presidential race with many swing states, where Richard Nixon narrowly won the election. Then, in 1972, the presence of a weak Democratic candidate in George McGovern resulted in a landslide electoral victory for Nixon, where swing states did not affect the outcome of the election. Despite a few notable exceptions, swing states did not play a substantial role in most presidential elections during the 20th century. 

Swing States and 21st Century American Politics 

The Election of 2000 was the first election where a significant political divide in the country among a large majority of states was firmly established. The Northeast, West Coast, and the state of Illinois became safe Democratic areas, whereas the South and most of the Mountain West became safe Republican areas. The remaining non-affiliated states, encompassing much of the Rust Belt and the state of Florida, became the only states that either party could realistically contest during most presidential elections.

The 21st century has seen the permanent transformation of presidential campaigns into highly targeted operations, focusing almost exclusively on about 15 swing states. Residents of the other 35 states often express frustration at how little their votes seem to matter in the current partisan political climate, increasing calls for the abolishment of the Electoral College process for an election determined entirely by a national popular vote. 

However, it is doubtful that the electoral process could be changed. The approval of three-fourths of state legislatures required to amend the United States Constitution could not happen in the current political environment. 

Important Swing States

Ohio

Historically, the state of Ohio has been the most important swing state in presidential elections, with its centralized location in the industrial Midwest providing a key barometer for a candidate’s strength. It is particularly important to the Republican Party, which has never had a candidate win a presidential election without carrying the state of Ohio. Recently, Ohio has been a swing state in name only, trending heavily to the right, going to the Republican Party by eight percentage points in the last two presidential elections.

Florida

Florida has been the most important swing state in the 21st century, as its incredibly diverse electorate effectively represents the United States as a whole. It was the deciding factor in the controversial Election of 2000 and continues to play a major role in presidential elections with an ever-increasing population. Florida currently has 30 electoral votes, 3rd most in the country behind California and Texas, having recently surpassed the state of New York in population.

Like Ohio, Florida has been trending to the right, in part, due to the shifting of Hispanic voters to the Republican Party and being a popular location for older residents who tend to be more conservative. Florida has shifted Republican in four consecutive presidential elections, going from a 2.8% Democratic win in 2008 to a 3.4% Republican win in 2020. Unlike Ohio, Florida will still likely continue to be a close swing state for the next presidential campaign but will probably end up favoring Republicans by about five percentage points if trends continue. 

Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin 

For the first four presidential elections of the 21st century, the Democratic Party enjoyed an easier electoral path to victory, mainly due to its success in most of the Rust Belt, outside of Ohio and Indiana. When combined with the West Coast and Northeast, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin gave the Democratic Party a so-called “blue wall,” making a Republican victory very difficult. However, in 2016, Republicans finally broke through the “blue wall” and won these three states, transforming them from historically Democratic-leaning states to swing states.

The Democratic Party was able to secure these states again in the Election of 2020, reestablishing their formidable “blue wall” as Joe Biden secured the White House. However, shifting demographics and party affiliation favoring the GOP necessitates that the Democratic Party hold on to these three states to win future presidential elections. These states will probably be the most vital swing states in the 2024 election and future elections, eclipsing both Ohio and Florida in importance. 

What Are Swing States? Quiz

How is the president of the United States elected?
What is required to amend the United States Constitution?
Which election was one of the closest in US history?
Which state is known as a key barometer for a candidate's strength in the Midwest?
Which of the following states is NOT part of the 'blue wall'?
What has been a recent trend in Florida's voting behavior?
Which election saw the Republican Party break through the Democratic 'blue wall'?
Which state has been the most important swing state in the 21st century?
How many Electoral College votes is each state guaranteed?
What are swing states?

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Electoral College and how does it work in U.S. presidential elections?

The Electoral College is a process used in the United States to elect the president. Each state is assigned a number of electoral votes equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. A presidential candidate needs to win a majority of these electoral votes to be elected president, rather than winning the popular vote nationwide.

What are swing states and why are they important in U.S. elections?

Swing states are states that are not firmly aligned with either major political party and can shift support between Democrats and Republicans in different election cycles. They are crucial because they often determine the outcome of presidential elections, as candidates focus their campaigns on winning these states to secure the necessary electoral votes.

Which states are currently considered the most important swing states in U.S. elections?

As of recent elections, the most important swing states include Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states have diverse electorates and have played pivotal roles in determining the outcome of presidential elections, especially in the 21st century.

How has the role of swing states evolved in U.S. presidential elections over time?

In the 20th century, swing states varied more from election to election based on political and socio-economic trends. However, since the 2000 election, a more permanent divide has emerged, with certain states consistently being contested. This has led to campaigns focusing heavily on a smaller number of swing states, making them critical to electoral success.

Why is there growing frustration with the Electoral College system in the U.S.?

Many residents of non-swing states feel their votes are less impactful because presidential campaigns focus predominantly on swing states. This has led to calls for abolishing the Electoral College in favor of a national popular vote, though changing the system would require a constitutional amendment, which is unlikely in the current political climate.

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